In accordance with the requirements of NI 51-101, PetroKamchatka has obtained a Report on Resources Data dated effective June 30, 2009, prepared by DeGolyer and MacNaughton ("D&M"), an independent qualified resource evaluator. This report, alongside Form 51-101F2 and Form 51-101F3, can be downloaded via the links below.
Statement of Resources
The statement of resources data and other oil and gas information set forth below is dated 1 September 2009 and has an effective date of 30 June 2009. The information set forth below is derived from the D&M Report, which was prepared in accordance with the COGE Handbook and NI 51-101.
The resources data summarizes the oil prospective resources of the Tigil, Icha and Urginskaya Blocks on the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. References to gross prospective resources are to the prospective resources of 100% interest in each of the Tigil, Icha and Urginskaya licences. The Company does not have a 100% interest in such exploration licences, but rather has a 45% net beneficial interest in each of the Tigil and Icha licences and a 90% net beneficial interest in the Urginskaya licence.
Assumptions and qualifications applicable to the evaluation and contained in the D&M Report are set forth in the notes to the tables. The resources data conforms to the requirements of NI 51-101. Additional information not required by NI 51-101 has been presented to provide continuity and additional information which the Company believes is important to the readers of this information.
The information relating to the crude oil resources of PetroKamchatka contains forward-looking statements relating to future net revenues, forecast capital expenditures, future development plans and costs related thereto, forecast operating costs, anticipated production and abandonment costs. Thus, when examining this report, investors should be mindful of usual cautions in respect of forward-looking statements, and more broadly of the comprehensive Risk Factors discussed in the Investors segment of this website.
Identified Resources
All of PetroKamchatka's identified resources are located onshore in the Tigil, Icha and Urginskaya Blocks on the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. Prospective resources are those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations by the application of future development projects.
Prospective resources have both an associated chance of discovery and a chance of development. Prospective Resources are further subdivided in accordance with the level of certainty associated with recoverable estimates assuming their discovery. Because of the uncertainty of commerciality and the lack of sufficient exploration drilling in respect of each of the Tigil, Icha and Urginskaya Blocks, the prospective resources cannot be classified as contingent resources or reserves. Moreover, as at the date hereof, the Company has not conducted any drilling on its properties, with the first well expected to be spudded in late October 2009. The prospective resources estimates are not provided as a means of comparison to contingent resources or reserves.
For an undiscovered accumulation the chance of commerciality is the product of two risk components, being the chance of discovery and the chance of development. There is no certainty that any portion of the prospective resources estimated herein will be discovered. If discovered, there is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the prospective resources evaluated.
Deterministic and probabilistic methodologies were used to estimate potential present worth that could be realized should the prospective resources estimated herein be both successfully discovered and developed. Probabilistic methods were used to estimate the potential prospective resources quantities. Deterministic models incorporated various economic factors and development practices based on the potential probabilistic prospective resources quantities estimated. The following were estimated deterministically: operating expenses, capital costs, prices (US$70.00 low estimate, US$78.00 mean estimate, and US$85.00 high estimate per barrel for Brent crude), potential production, depreciation, taxes, time value of money, field life, exploration well costs, development timing, and abandonment costs, with consideration of other factors. The data were modelled using a potential present worth discount rate of 10 percent for various field sizes and field development maturity. These data inherently contain variation in the economic assumptions, transportation, drilling, and other infrastructure installation costs. These deterministically estimated economic schedules allowed for the deterministic estimation of potential present worth per unit of resources based on three prospective resources quantity estimates: low, mean, and high. These three deterministic-based potential present worth per unit of resource (low, mean, and high) estimates were used to construct potential present worth per unit of resources distributions. These distributions were used to assign potential value assuming the successful discovery and development of each respective prospect.
Gross Prospective Resources
The following table sets forth estimates of the gross prospective resources of the Tigil, Icha and Urginskaya Blocks combined, as of June 30, 2009. References to gross prospective resources are to the prospective resources of 100% net beneficial interest in each of the Tigil, Icha and Urginskaya licences. The Company does not have a 100% interest in such exploration licences, but rather has a 45% net beneficial interest in each of the Tigil and Icha licences and a 90% net beneficial interest in the Urginskaya licence.
Gross Properties Prospective Resources (1)(2)(3)(4)
|
Low Estimate Million bbl(3) |
Best Estimate Million bbl(3) |
High Estimate Million bbl(3) |
Mean Estimate Million bbl(3) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 696.2 | 1,140.6 | 1,868.7 | 1,228.4 |
Notes
- Pg (the probability of geological success) and Pe (the probability of economic success) have not been applied to the volumes in this table.
- Recovery efficiency is applied to prospective resources in this table.
- Low, best, and high estimates in this table are P90, P50, and P10, respectively.
- The prospective resources presented above are based on the statistical aggregation method.
The D&M Report estimates that: (i) the Tigil Block (100% interest) has a mean estimate of gross prospective resources equal to 597.4 million barrels, (ii) the Icha Block (100% interest) has a mean estimate of gross prospective resources equal to 390.9 million barrels, and (iii) the Urginskaya Block (100% interest) has a mean estimate of gross prospective resources equal to 2582. million barrels (subject to the assumptions set forth in the D&M Report).
For probabilistic estimates of petroleum resources, the low estimate reported herein is the P90 quantity derived from probabilistic analysis. This means that there is at least a 90% probability that, assuming the prospect is discovered and developed, the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the low estimate. The best (median) estimate is the P50 quantity derived from probabilistic analysis. This means that there is at least a 50% probability that, assuming the prospect is discovered and developed, the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the best (median) estimate. The high estimate is the P10 quantity derived from probabilistic analysis. This means that there is at least a 10% probability that, assuming the prospect is discovered and developed, the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the high estimate. The expected value, an outcome of the probabilistic analysis, is used for the mean estimate.
The quantity of petroleum discovered by exploration drilling depends on the number of prospects that are successful as well as the quantity that each success contains. Reliable forecasts of these quantities are, therefore, dependent on accurate predictions of the number of discoveries that are likely to be made if the entire portfolio of prospects is drilled. The accuracy of this forecast depends on the portfolio size, and an accurate assessment of the probability of geologic success (Pg).
Potential Present Worth
Potential Present Worth At 10% of the Net Prospective Oil and Gas Resources Truncated, TEFS-Adjusted, And Pe-Adjusted as of June 30, 2009.
Truncated, TEFS-Adjusted, Pe-Adjusted, Net Oil and Gas Resources Potential Present Worth Summary Prospect
| Prospects |
Low Estimate US$ '000 |
Best Estimate US$ '000 |
High Estimate US$ '000 |
Mean Estimate US$ '000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical Aggregate | 8,375 | 73,984 | 254,058 | 111,139 |
| Arithmetic Summation | (4,842) | 58,280 | 278,951 | 111,139 |
| A/B | 2,502 | 17,845 | 72,311 | 31,304 |
| E | (689) | 2,262 | 11,917 | 4,390 |
| F | (265) | 3,867 | 18,043 | 7,031 |
| R | (1,565) | (503) | 2,090 | (18) |
| R2 South | (1,310) | 310 | 5,356 | 1,341 |
| R2 North | (299) | 3,156 | 13,753 | 5,551 |
| A | 1,423 | 5,561 | 32,073 | 11,576 |
| Shapiro Updip | (1,148) | 835 | 6,717 | 2,127 |
| C | (572) | 2,523 | 13,405 | 4,935 |
| Tundrovaya East | (36) | 5,407 | 24,394 | 10,132 |
| Tundrovaya South-East | (1,484) | (155) | 4,356 | 866 |
| R3 | 725 | 7,289 | 29,855 | 13,074 |
| R5 | 725 | 9,886 | 44,682 | 18,780 |
Notes
- Low, best, mean, and high estimates follow the COGE guidelines for prospective resources.
- Low, best, mean, and high estimates in this table are P90, P50, mean, and P10, respectively.
- Only the mean can be arithmetically summed; P90, P50, and P10 are not additive.
- Recovery efficiency is applied to prospective resources in this table.
- Negative values are denoted with parentheses.
- Present worth in this table refers to the Company's net beneficial interest in each of the Tigil and Icha Blocks.
- The present worth values in this table do not represent a fair market value evaluation.
- Political risk, market availability, timing, pricing and other economic uncertainties are not included in this table.
- A possibility exists that the prospects will not result in successful discoveries and development, in which case there would be no positive potential present worth.
- Estimated potential present worth of prospective resources is not comparable to present worth estimates of contingent resources or reserves.
- "TEFS" is defined as the threshold economic field size.
- "Pe" is defined as the probability of discovering economic resources.
- Condensate and solution gas volumes are not valued in this report.
- Arithmetic summation is a requirement of the PRMS guidelines.
- There is no certainty that any portion of the prospective resources estimated herein will be discovered. If discovered, there is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the prospective resources evaluated.
Other Oil and Gas Information
As at 30 September 2009, the Company did not have any interest in any natural gas or oil wells.
Properties with No Attributed Reserves
The following table sets forth the gross area and net area of the Company for its unproved properties held as at May 31, 2009.
| Location | Gross Hectares | Net Hectares |
|---|---|---|
| Total | 3,713,869 | 3,292,161 |
| Kamchatka, Russia | 3,690,900 | 3,281,755 |
| British Columbia, Canada | 22,969 | 10,406 |
No rights of the Company to explore, develop or exploit any of unproved properties will expire before 31 May 2010 (PetroKamchatka’s next financial year-end). However, if the Company fails to meet its seismic work commitment pursuant to the Urginskaya licence, and fails to get an extension in this requirement, it could forfeit Urginskaya licence. This licence accounts for 213,400 gross hectares (192,060 net hectares) of the above Kamchatka exploration acreage. The portion of the gross properties prospective resources (Pg) that are attributable Urginskaya Block leads are 67.3 million barrels for the Low Estimate, 206.0 million barrels for the Best Estimate, 526.0 million barrels for the High Estimate, and 258.2 million barrels for the Mean Estimate. Given their status as leads, none of these Urginskaya leads were used in calculating the potential present worth of the prospects.
